Under the Trump administration, the Department of Defense has become much more vocal about the importance of investment in defense technology. It has also sometimes become combative with some of the companies it has contracted with. Last week, President Trump announced via Truth Social that federal agencies must stop working with LLM company Anthropic, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth later tweeted that he was directing the Pentagon to designate Anthropic a “supply-chain risk.”
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The prediction markets said that Trump was going to win in the last presidential election, and then Trump did win. For a lot of people, that was a confirmation that prediction markets were good. But for those of you who were watching the polls, they suggested that the race was a toss-up, which it was. And so the fact that Trump won didn’t necessarily mean that that particular kind of predicting was wrong. There’s a whole nest of things going on here that has started this move.